Wednesday, January 07, 2009  

Starhub appoints Tan Tong Hai as COO

Starhub has appointed Tan Tong Hai as its COO.

Tan, was previously president and CEO of Singapore Computer Systems from 2005 till recently. Before that, he was president and CEO of Pacific Internet. He has over 20 years of experience in the regional IT, Internet and e-commerce industries.

The COO position had been vacant for over two years since StarHub's previous COO, Yong Lum Sung, quit in 2006.

Tan’s appointment comes just after M1’s CEO Neil Montefiore quit. The 55-year-old leaves M1 after 12 years. M1 is currently looking for a new CEO.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters have on average an OUTPERFORM call on Starhub with a price target of S$2.50 compared to its last traded price of S$1.92.


Tuesday, November 25, 2008  

After the collapse comes inflation: Ray Barros

Watching the US government invest US$20 bln in Citigroup shares and guarantee a further US$306 bln in loans may save the day for now. But the scenario feels rather eerie (continues below video)...

...when you consider that this money, along with the US$700 bln already pledged to help the banks, plus another US$25 bln if the car companies get their desired hand-out, will need to be soaked up again.

Meaning: this trillion dollars in money which the US government has shaken out of its sleeve will, at some point, find its way back into the pockets of consumers.

And when it does, argues Ray Barros, inflation will be the next big thing to worry about.

In other words, we'll drown tomorrow in the waters which we are using today to dowse the flames.

Not that the US government has much choice. It's a little like standing in a wobbly aluminium dingy: The boat has rocked too far the left, but overcompensating will rock it too far on the right. It'll take a while before it steadies. If we don't all fall out, first.

I recorded this interview with Ray Barros a few weeks ago, but his words still hold true today. Perhaps more so.

I welcome your comments.

PS: Ray Barros will be in town December 6 at Singapore Expo Convention & Exhibition Center.

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Tuesday, November 11, 2008  

FJ Benjamin - yet another weak quarter

FJ Benjamin says the weakening macroeconomic outlook means it will have a challenging financial year. Its profitability will be affected by fluctuations in foreign exchange. In the meantime, it will try to control costs and improve its cash flow.

The retailer’s Q1 2009 revenue rose 3% to S$84 mln. The retailer said the marginal increase was due to the global economic woes and weakening consumer sentiment.

Net profit dropped 73% to S$1.1 mln. This was mainly due to unrealised non-cash foreign exchange losses of S$1.4 mln, compared with a gain of S$800,000 in Q1 2008.

It generated S$14.3 mln in cash from operations compared to the S$1.2 mln.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters have on average a HOLD call on the stock with a price target of S$0.27, compared to its last traded price of S$0.19.

~ Jin San’s take ~
FJ Benjamin has reported yet another weak quarter. At least it didn’t suffer a net loss this quarter like it did in Q4 2008. Things don’t look positive for the retailer as the weaker consuming spending in the region will negatively affect its earnings for this year. This is more than a bit worrying, as it has been in negative free cash flow position for the past two FY (even though it's positive for its latest quarter.

Like the rest of the market, FJ Benjamin's stock has taken a beating and its P/E now stands at 7.71 and its P/B is at 0.82.

As always, please see your licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Friday, October 31, 2008  

SMRT - Bumps ahead

SMRT says the operating environment is expected to be difficult for the next 12 months. It thinks its taxi operations will remain challenging. Also, its bus operations are expected to sustain operating losses for FY2009 because of high diesel prices, and being affected would be affected by the government implementing the more stringent quality of service standards.

But for the next quarter, the transport operator says it expects higher revenue from its train and bus operations as compared to Q2 due mainly to ridership growth.

It also expects to complete the acquisition of a 49% stake in Shenzhen Zona Transportation Group Co. Ltd by Q4 2009.

It declared an interim dividend of 1.75 cents.

Q2 revenue rose 15% to S$227 mln as more people took SMRT trains and buses, it received higher rental and advertising revenue, and it sold more diesel to taxi hirers.

Net profit rose 8% to S$42.6 mln due mainly to higher operating profits partially offset by higher income tax expenses.

It generated S$20.7 mln in cash from operations compared to the S$22.1 mln the previous year.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters have on average an OUTPERFORM call on the stock with a price target of S$2.00, compared to its last traded price of S$1.54.

~ Jin San’s take ~
SMRT says it is expected to finish acquiring 49% of Shenzhen Zona Transportation Group Co. Ltd by Q4 2009. This could be an important event in SMRT’s history. SMRT says Shenzhen Zona is profitable and has high growth potential.

Like the other SGX-listed company, Midas Holdings, which is supplying the demand from China’s infrastructure sector, SMRT can hedge against its exposure to the Singapore transportation market by doing well in China.

After all, Singapore is too small and competitive.

As always, please see your licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Monday, October 20, 2008  

Qian Hu - negative free cash flow?

Qian Hu released its Q3 2008 results today.

It expects its revenue and profit to continue to increase in Q4 2008. The increased revenue should come from its ornamental fish operations, improvement in its accessories export business, coupled with the positive contributions from its overseas operations in Malaysia, Thailand and China.

Q3 revenue rose 4% to S$23.6 mln as sales of its ornamental fish increased and it exported more accessories. Its plastics business also registered an increase in revenue, although the increase in the price of raw materials eroded its profit margin. Its net profit went up 21% to S$1.5 mln.

It generated S$3.2 mln in cash from operations compared to the S$2.8 mln it gained the previous year.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters have on average a HOLD call on the stock with a price target of S$0.13, compared to its last traded price of S$0.10.

~ Jin San’s take ~
Qian Hu is ranked number 1 on the Business Times Corporate Transparency Index, and with good reason - its reports are usually detailed and give explanations for its actions. But starting in FY2007, its free cash flow turned negative and this trend is apparent in its Q3 report as well.

According to its cash flow statement, it gained S$2.23 in cash from operations, but it spent S$1.1 mln on property, plant and equipment, and another S$1.8 mln on brooder stocks. Put together, the capital expenditure comes up to S$2.9 mln, more than what its cash from operations can cover.

Although this is more a sign of a company with ambition that believes in investing in itself, and the margin is not that wide, investors might want to take note of this.

As always, please see your licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Thursday, October 16, 2008  

BH Global Marine - to be undone by the BDI?

BH Global Marine says it is cautiously optimistic of its business prospects in the current year and expects the demand for its products and services to remain stable. It also expects consolidation within the industry as credit tightening by banks will adversely affect the smaller competitors.

Q3 turnover went down 6% to S$22.7 mln as it sold less marine electrical equipment. But Q3 2007 in comparison was an exceptional quarter as BH Global Marine pushed forward some projects from Q4 2007.

Its overall gross profit margin increased from 38% in Q3 2007 to 41% in Q3 2008. This was mainly due to the weaker US dollar in Q3 2008. Net profit rose 3% to S$5.1 mln.

It generated S$6.7 mln in cash from operations compared to the S$5.3 mln it burnt the previous year. It could have been higher if not for the rise in inventory costs to S$3.2 mln from S$1.8 mln the previous year.

This stock is not covered by Reuters. It was last traded at S$0.16.

~ Jin San’s take ~
Although BH Global Marine says it expects demand for its products to continue, the global downturn is taking its toll on the shipping industry. The Baltic Dry Index plunged 10.7% cent on the day, to 1,615 pts on 15 October, its lowest level since February 2003. With the slowdown in shipping activity, we wonder if BH Global Marine will still see a constant level of demand for its products.

As always, please see your licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008  

SGX - Signs MOU with Bahrain Stock Exchange

SGX has signed an MOU with Bahrain Stock Exchange to foster a closer relationship and develop channels of information exchange between the two markets.

The Bahrain Stock Exchange officially started operating in June 1989. Its financial instruments listed include ordinary and preferred shares, bonds/Islamic Sukuk, and mutual funds. The exchange is regulated by The Central Bank of Bahrain.

There are 52 companies listed on the exchange, 42 mutual funds, and 14 bonds/Islamic Sukuk traded on the exchange. Its market cap is about US$30 bln.

The exchange’s trading session is from 9.30 a.m. to 12:30 noon, including a pre-opening period of 15 minutes starting from 9:15 a.m. Clearing and settlement of transactions is made within two working days (T+2).

Analysts surveyed by Reuters have on average a HOLD call on the stock with a price target of S$7.55, compared to its last traded price of S$5.85.

~ Jin San’s take ~
From setting up a representative office in Beijing to holding a roadshow in Europe, SGX has been very keen to attract more foreign listings in Singapore. This MOU with the Bahrain Stock Exchange can be seen as a stepping stone to SGX’s exposure to investors and companies in a region that is less affected by the global financial crisis.

According to Kuwait’s Global Investment House, the Bahrain Stock Exchange still offers the best value in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Despite the global financial crisis causing a decline in the gulf markets, Global said Bahrain’s economy has been posting healthy double digit growth rates in the past five years.

But in Singapore, where we’re currently in a recession, SGX cannot escape the extremely bearish market. And with its stock priced at S$5.85 (it was trading above S$15 this time last year), it is set to tumble further. Its current P/E of 13 is still a bit expensive for a value investor. Well, till the next bull run, then.

As always, please see your licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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