Monday, July 23, 2007  

Results won't stop em'!

This Friday, the government will be out with numbers to show increase in HDB resale prices for April to June. We can then see how much exactly has the property prices rise by, in terms of region as well as the different sectors like offices, industrial properties as well as shops.

This is to give an idea of how well properties are doing and some speculation as to whether the Government will step in to 'slow it down'--- in fear of property burst perhaps, or even whether property is 'too hot to handle'

I feel that regardless whatever is in the report, property will still remain sizzlin' hot! (excuse the pun!)

My reasons:

First, property, although as 'fast and furious' as it is, is still relatively new. And that people are taking the plunge to get whatever they can from it. Milking it for what it's worth is definitely an understatement. Although they're many players in the market, it will still take quite a while for property boom to slow down.

Take for example the case of the 'bubble tea'. It's the sought after drink with 'pearls', the black starchy edible balls, and that people are willing to fish out at least S$2.50 to S$3.00 per drink. Competition soon followed through with a bubble tea joint in almost anywhere nearby, and of course, funkier names. And then the prices dropped to remain competitive. At this point of time, I'd say 'SweetTalk' manage to stay on, charging a 'bubble tea' at S$1 each or S$1.20 at interchanges.

Key take away from here: It entered the market at a later time when the bubble tea fad was slowly dying out, and not to forget the reasonable price that people can come to terms with.

With that said, this brings about my second reason. Property boom is different in Singapore, compared to the bubble tea craze. Singapore is a small country and in property, we talk about space. Now Singapore does not have enough space. And property investors know this; that it is now or never, to secure at least a spot where everyone else is also fighting for. No matter what the report holds, i'd still say that property investors would probably take with them other areas that might be good to invest in, but definitely not slowing down even if it is overheating.

We then look at the Government to see any hint of 'stepping in'. I would say that it will still not stop property investors from being part of or getting a bigger share of the pie.

Nurwidya Abdul

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Friday, June 15, 2007  

Where does that put us?

In today's article on The Straits Times, the government has released 15 new sites to be sold for development. This includes plots of land for office spaces, hotels as well as apartments. This clearly illustrates that the number of people jumping into the property pool is increasingly aggressive.

This is probably one of their efforts to try and achieve the goal of having an eight million population by 2015.

On the flip side, far-far away (if you've watched Shrek) from now, this may not turn out too rosy after all.

My reasons: (and they're all results of a snowball effect)

First, the government is trying to create a 'pull' factor to get people to come to Singapore and reach that eight million population by 2015. Hence the development of luxury for locals or foreign talents, housing, in this case, the demand and growth of the property industry.

With new sites for sale means, lesser greenery to complement the Singapore landscape. When these land area is developed, Singapore may not have much green landscape.

Second, when these green landscapes are out of the picture, it may not necessarily look cosy to live in. There will be buildings everywhere, on top of the fact that we're in a mere 660 km sq (used to be at 642 km sq, now thanks to reclaimed land!)area country where every single space counts. It may not create a comfortable living for both foreign and local talents and may also backfire the government's plans of getting more people here.

Third, we have two issues. With eight million people here, it'll be a competition to get a job, even for the locals; where does that put us? Second issue, with lack of greenery, people may not find it attractive to work here. That may leave us with empty housing and redundant buildings with little or no greenery to complement our 'uniqueness' and lifestyle; where does that put us?

While the property market does not seem to break its bullishness any time soon, other considerables like greeneries have to be put to play. Singapore is known for its uniqueness with greenery. After all the extra land gone, the parks may be gone too.

On top of that, the government's effort for 'Clean and Green' campaign, shading our roads, and improving our parks' structures for a more cozy feel for example, may go to waste.

With more of it gone, where does that put us?


Nurwidya Abdul

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Monday, May 28, 2007  

Why the property bubble may burst soon.

The hottest investment vehicle now has got to be property.

Property developers owning commercial buildings in town are hiking up rents and companies are paying through their noses because they don't want to lose their spot, especially when supply for prime office space is running dangerously low.

Investors in private property, while waiting to sell off their units for a hefty profit, are pocketing tidy little sums monthly from jacking up rentals to tenants so used to their dwellings they are adverse to the idea of moving out.

All's well and good for the property market, and for the people who had the foresight to invest in it before the big boom came around.

But what of the companies who lease prime office space and the people who rent condos and landed property?

Humanising the effects of this upswing in property will show just how easily, and soon, the property bubble could burst.

First, companies situated in the central business district face burning huge holes in their pockets if they want to stay in their premises. They are reluctant to move because they want to stay close to their customers.

These companies may suffer a double whammy in costs if they hire expatriates, because their salary packages usually include relocation and rental expenses.

So besides paying more to rent prime office space, they also have to pay more for their expat staff to live in Singapore.

These factors might either push firms out of the CBD area or deter them from hiring foreign expertise, even if their business needs them.

Second, the expats have to pay more for their private property rental. Their companies' rental assistance may not be proportionate to their rent increase. Some of them face rental hikes of 50-100%, and many of them have since moved out of districts 9, 10 an 11. Some have even downgraded to staying in HDB flats.

Those who find it increasingly stressful to stay on will have to reconsider their future in Singapore.

Now that will put a huge dent in the country's target of a record population by 2015.

While the empty flats in Sengkang stand more chances of being filled now, the near future of the private property market seems less bright.

After all, if even expats cannot afford condos in districts 9, 10 and 11, what hope is there for the locals?

And now that the expats are downgrading and moving to the outskirts, it may be even more difficult for us to buy property in the suburban areas without burning holes in our own pockets.
Serene Lim

*picture courtesy of www.offthemarkcartoons.com.

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Wednesday, April 11, 2007  

Trust Companies To Make Right Decisions.

For the longest time, companies venturing into businesses unrelated to their core competencies have been scaring investors away.

That is because they either don't understand why the company is diversifying into the new segment, or are worried the unfamiliar territory will weigh it down.

Investors really should not be too worried because these companies are just trying to make more money from these forays.

Take Popular Holdings, for example.

When it first announced investing in property development One Robin, investors frowned upon the news and a knee-jerk selling of Popular's shares took place.

This was probably further exacerbated by how Popular's core publishing business was facing margin pressures.

Investors wondered why the company would jump into property when it should be concentrating on its core business.

But Popular had its own reasons.

First, it wanted to park a sum of money somewhere before taking it out a few years later.

Second, the property market was riding high and the company would be able to make some money from investing that particular sum in a project.

In essence, the company has found a way to make more money while waiting to pump money into a planned investment a few years later.

The same goes for Time Watch Investments.

Why would a watch-maker and retailer want to buy a shopping complex in Zhengzhou for S$20 mln?

The company wants to brand the shopping centre under its name and to house its various brands in it.

It can also make more money through commissions collected from the other retail outlets operating in it.

Of course, investors should be extremely concerned if a company like UTAC wanted to start selling canned food.

Otherwise, companies should be trusted to make the right decisions that would benefit it and its shareholders.

Serene Lim

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