Monday, October 30, 2006  

Macquarie:
Proof that Singapore retail investors are ignorant

It's not every day I go in to bat for a particular stock, but I have been watching the Singapore-listed Macquarie funds in quiet disbelief. The two funds I am talking about are Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund, and Macquarie MEAG Prime REIT. Here we have a collection of assets so poorly understood by the market that they provide what I personally believe to be an incredible investment opportunity. I hasten to add that I am not a licensed financial advisor, and this is not a solicitation to do anything with your money. That's your decision entirely. But it seems to me that the only reason the Macquarie funds haven't moved is because Singapore investors don't understand them.

MIIF is a collection of stakes in other listed and unlisted Macquarie funds. Specifically, they are the Macquarie Airports Trust, one of its first infrastructure funds that is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. Macquarie Communications Group, DUET and NYSE-listed Macquarie Infrastructure Company are others. On the unlisted side, it owns parts of Arqiva (the former ntl broadcast), Canadian Aged Care, Brussels Airport and a bundle of others. It certainly is an eclectic collection of investments with communications infrastructure making up 27% of their holdings, airports 20%, utilities 17% and ports, transport, storage and aged care less than 9% each. Their investments are located in the UK (37%), Australia (14%), Canada (12%), Belgium (11%) and France, China, the US, Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Italy each less than 9%.

I don't have intimate knowledge of the assets it owns, nor any inside knowledge about how business is going. I only have information they made public to go on. But having followed the Australian market for many years at CNBC I have watched Macquarie grow from strength to strength. It is Australia's only listed merchant bank, and a few years ago decided that rather than just help other investors buy decent assets, they would buy the assets themselves. Banking support is, naturally, provided by the parent company. They call Macquarie "the millionaire's factory", and with good reason! Talk to the folks at Macquarie. They are in a league of their own.

Given the stature they enjoy in Australia, it is kookie to say the least that Singapore investors should be giving this fund the cold shoulder. MIIF is trading at a six cent a share discount to its Net Asset Value, and is yielding 8.4%.

Hullo?!?! A 6 cent a share discount??? 8.4% yield? Is there anybody out there?

Macquarie MEAG Prime REIT is not much different. It owns parts of Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City. It's a fund that is much more easily understood than MIIF because investors can go to the buildings and take a good look themselves.

Price to book? Just under 1. In other words, buying units in this fund you get the assets at a slight discount to cost, with no upside factored in.

Clearly, the underperformance of these stocks is a worry for investors. A stock that doesn't appreciate isn't great no matter how much of a discount it's priced at. I've also heard the view expressed that MIIF shareholders were miffed when the fund bought into the Canadian Aged Care business. They asked: what the hell do I want to invest in Canadian Aged Care for?!

But they are missing the point. Macquarie invests where there's money to be made. They don't care how it's made (within legal and ethical boundaries, of course). And neither should investors. Unfortunately this speaks of the lack of maturity of Singapore retail investors. They'd rather chase CapitaLand to three times book value and pile in and out of SIA, in the face of global worries. That's because these are easily understood stories. They don't require too much thinking. Follow the herd, that's easier. Even if you don't make any money.

Well, you don't have to dig too deep to find some gems. In fact, usually you don't even need to dig. Just clear the top soil a little, and there it is. Singapore investors are quite blind. If they're not making money they only have themselves to blame.

Comments:
Interesting comments.
The pressure is on MMP Reit to announce acquisitions in January 2007. However, the potential returns window is rapidly narrowing due to the recent price appreciation. And that acquisition may or may not happen.
 
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