Friday, June 08, 2007  

The names Bond...Treasury Bond

That little note just keeps spoiling the party that we've been having on Wall Street. Now, this is of course a highly opinionated blog coming from me, just one of many financial journalists out there in the world today. But hey, I did say we shouldn't worry when the markets tanked in February right? Now look where we are! Or, where we were last week is what I really should be saying.

Now I am going to go out on another limb with what I think: The party on Wall Street's over; the rally is history, finished, done.

If you hit the clubs on weekends here in Singapore or wherever you are reading this from in the world, here's summing it up in nightlife lingo for you: we're well beyond where the bartender called 'last call' and are at the point now where they are kicking people out of the club.

This week has been a rough one to report on in the morning. Monday wasn't so bad, but that's only because Friday was somewhat decent and since we are 12 hours ahead in Singapore, things started out good. But Mondays U.S. session wasn't anything spectacular, just modest gains (this is probably where the bartender was yelling 'last call' but nobody heard it), so Tuesday was a decent report I filled.

But Wednesday morning here changed everything, and what I have effectively dubbed 'the beginning of the end.' Markets in the U.S. were down, and while the numbers were down somewhat, it was nothing nearly as bad as what we saw in the most recent U.S. session; a nearly 200 point drop on the Dow, and the last three days, we have lost more than 400 points on the Dow. Not good.

But in the underlying market, finding some positive stories that would explain if the drop was a fluke or not was hard to come by, and looking at the Bond market made you even more sick to your stomach if your an equities market loving groupie like us.

As an American I should know that we like some risk and trying our luck. We like going to Vegas for gambling, and if we can't get to Vegas for whatever reason, we'll at least get on a bus to go an hour or two to a casino built in the middle of nowhere built by a Native American Indian tribe with great food and catchy TV ads (if you're from Boston or the New England area you will know what I mean and where I am talking about).

But we are still smart enough to know when things are going too fast, too unsafe, and may become uncontrollable, so we like to have some security. We love having our fun but our minds are not in the clouds.

This brings me back to the Bond market; whenever we see the Treasury yields pick up as Americans, especially to highs we have not seen in a year or so, we start moving money. Traditionally, that comes out of equities and into more sure, secure investments like good old fashion U.S. Treasury Bonds.

And the Bonds just totally killed our party buzz for this equities rally.




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