Monday, July 30, 2007  

Singapore get your act together!

Singapore seems to be tackling on larger issues and working double hard to spruce up for the upcoming national day at the Marina Bay.

I can already picture it, the magnificent Fullerton hotel, the majestic Merlion, the 'sky scrapers' of the CBD and of course the sound of swirling water of the Singapore river.

That's not the only event to look forward too, there's of course the Formula 1, and the much anticipated integrated resorts!

Those alone may be enough to help raise Singapore up the ranks as more then just a clean and green city.

Despite our size, our country has a lot going on for it.

Yes, we may be developing and improving at a pretty break-neck paced, which is good, but it seems majority of the people in Singapore are being left behind.

You would expect a developing country boasting with numerous pretigious events to have at the most basic etiquette.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Singaporeans or just people who call Singapore their home are a bunch of rude mannered individuals.

But its just appalling to admire the developments of our country and yet know that there are people who are just not fitting, or not in line with the country's direction.

On the straits times website today, there's an article which reported that the National Environment Agency, SBS Transit and SMRT have joined forces to launch a campaign to encourage consumers to keep buses and bus interchanges clean!

Incentives, SBS Transit will be rewarding commuters with complementary ride for those who are spotted going out of their way to keep bus interchanges clean.

Its bad enough that conductors have to go around checking EZ-link cards to make sure commuters don't cheat on fares, and now they have to look out for the 'cleanest commuter award'!

In the article, they ranked cigarette butts, paper strips, tissue paper, plastic wrappers and sweet wrappers as the top five most common litters found in bus terminals.

Forgive me if i seem worked up but you would think commuters who use the services on a daily basis and a couple a times a day would have the decency to 'take ownership of their litter'!

Just to name you a few examples:

I was walking along the underground train station to the gantries when the lady in front of me stopped and spat on the ground! I would have stepped on it if i hadn't recovered from my state of shock and disgust as quick as I did!

Another one, I have witness a man on the bus, snort and dispensed his nasal fluid on the floor of the bus !!!!

And a lady spitting on the bus too.

That's not all, do Singaporeans of people in general not know to keep to the left hand side of the escalator unless overtaking?

Or that its only polite to let passengers off the train first before boarding?

I have to take my hat off to some though who, once the train doors open, they give a loud exclamation: “ you don't let me out how u go in?!”. And its usually pregnant mothers or parents with strollers.

My point is, yes, we are definitely growing and progressing as a nation but what about the people? And it is the people that make up the nation right.

But of course not everyone is like that.

It does raise eyebrows to have a country that looks great and is great but to have people who are so far off the tangent.

Labels: , , , , , ,


 

Oil may be at US$100 preetty soon!!

Goldman Sachs Group previously mentioned that oil may be at US$100 or S$151 by 2009. Now that figure may just well be only a few months away.

In the Edge article dated 30 July, Jeffrey Currie, a London based commodity analyst, says that “US$95 is likely this year unless the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) unexpectedly increases production” as at the moment, lesser oil inventories are creating demand, making oil more expensive.

As it is, oil on last Friday is at US$77.02, up $2.07 a barrel.

What could possibly contribute to the rise? 'Disruptions of Nigerian or Iraqi supplies, or any military strike against Iran,' says John Kilduff, an analyst in the New York office of futures broker Man Financial.

At the moment, Afghanistan's Taleban have captured 22 South Koreans and is currently in negotiations to release them on the condition that the Taleban's prisoners were also released. Events like these in countries with oil will affect the pricing as well.

The outlook: “when will the Saudi Arabia ramp up production,” says Currie, “Oil might slip to US$73.50 if Opec were to start producing more now.”

In the same article, it says that Opec will have a meeting in September. If it is then decided to raise output, there would be more supplies by the end of the year.

Its a huge deal that oil prices are going up faster than you can say 'rise'. Given other circumstances, Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co, a Houston investment bank, says that the prices could even go up to US$200.

At the moment, we are facing a 'deficit', where there are more demand but lesser supply. As for now, let's do what we in our power. Go for 'world peace'.


Nurwidya Abdul

Labels: , , , , , , ,


Monday, July 23, 2007  

Results won't stop em'!

This Friday, the government will be out with numbers to show increase in HDB resale prices for April to June. We can then see how much exactly has the property prices rise by, in terms of region as well as the different sectors like offices, industrial properties as well as shops.

This is to give an idea of how well properties are doing and some speculation as to whether the Government will step in to 'slow it down'--- in fear of property burst perhaps, or even whether property is 'too hot to handle'

I feel that regardless whatever is in the report, property will still remain sizzlin' hot! (excuse the pun!)

My reasons:

First, property, although as 'fast and furious' as it is, is still relatively new. And that people are taking the plunge to get whatever they can from it. Milking it for what it's worth is definitely an understatement. Although they're many players in the market, it will still take quite a while for property boom to slow down.

Take for example the case of the 'bubble tea'. It's the sought after drink with 'pearls', the black starchy edible balls, and that people are willing to fish out at least S$2.50 to S$3.00 per drink. Competition soon followed through with a bubble tea joint in almost anywhere nearby, and of course, funkier names. And then the prices dropped to remain competitive. At this point of time, I'd say 'SweetTalk' manage to stay on, charging a 'bubble tea' at S$1 each or S$1.20 at interchanges.

Key take away from here: It entered the market at a later time when the bubble tea fad was slowly dying out, and not to forget the reasonable price that people can come to terms with.

With that said, this brings about my second reason. Property boom is different in Singapore, compared to the bubble tea craze. Singapore is a small country and in property, we talk about space. Now Singapore does not have enough space. And property investors know this; that it is now or never, to secure at least a spot where everyone else is also fighting for. No matter what the report holds, i'd still say that property investors would probably take with them other areas that might be good to invest in, but definitely not slowing down even if it is overheating.

We then look at the Government to see any hint of 'stepping in'. I would say that it will still not stop property investors from being part of or getting a bigger share of the pie.

Nurwidya Abdul

Labels: , , , , , , ,


Wednesday, July 18, 2007  

Singapore and China Free Trade deal will be good for everyone, even investors

The ties between Singapore and China are very close and strategic already, and they are looking to be getting even closer.

Vice Premiere Wu Yi's visit here last week highlighted the growing importance and significance of the relationship.

Talk about a Free Trade agreement in the works will be beneficial to just about everyone in my opinion, even investors.

For companies that are based here in Singapore, China represents a growing market for their products and technologies, helping to boost the top and bottom lines, something that is obviously good for investors.

You can only imagine the accessibility and possibilities that a Free Trade Agreement will create for companies here in Singapore, and also for companies in China. For shareholders in companies in both countries, a free trade agreement opens up accessibility for those companies to markets where there is already a lot of trade.

I've always been in the school of thought that Free Trade agreements between two countries are the hallmark and staple of great bilateral relations. Achieving Free Trade agreements is one of the goals you could say of every bilateral relationship. Navigating the waters of negotiating one is where things get tricky and why you see very few Free Trade agreements around these days (the United States for instance only has FTA's with a handful of countries).

FOne can only imagine the benefits of a Singapore-China FTA for Singaporean companies, and, how it will be beneficial to shareholders as well.

Curtis Bergh

Labels:


Friday, July 13, 2007  

The BIG BOYS got it!

You can run but you can't hide, the property boom may be here to stay as it gears up to enter the next phase of growth!

In the recent months, property development projects in Singapore have been popping up fast and furious.

And according to a statement made by Citigroup in an article on the 9 July edition of the Edge, it said investment companies will be ready to unload their property holdings to end-buyers from now till 2009.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority also said that completion will rise to 7,692 units in 2008 and more than then double in 2009.

End-buyers may be all to happy to fork out more money for luxury properties set in prime locations.

And with that being said, property developers are thus driven to scale new heights to bring to end-users more luxurious and more exclusive developments!

A vicious cycle in which there is no escaping!

Sounds fine and dandy for both parties doesn't it, a win-win situation for both parties.

Hmmm...is it possible to achieve such an amicable environment in a dog eat dog world?

With so much money being shameless waved and passed from hand to hand, its time to ask: Where does all the money come from?

Well, the BANKS of course.

In the same article, spokespersons for OCBC, DBS and Citigroup all expect a surge in mortgage growth and home loans.

This brings a whole new meaning to 'grinning from ear to ear'.

The banks literally have reasons to grin from ear to ear.

Right ear:

In a bid to draw more end buyers to a property, investment companies offer progressive payment schemes or otherwise named deferred payment.

This is where end-buyers pay for their property in phases, like 5% on booking, 10% in a few months, another 10% in another few months, and the rest upon completion.

Its effective as it draws crowds and the company gets to sell off their property fast.
However, this would mean that the onus for funds would be on the investment company, and who do they turn to? The banks.

And given that most properties are due for completion pretty soon, payments made under the schemes will be due soon...

Left ear:

For companies who do not offer the scheme, yes they may risk losing 'hyped-up property launches' but the demand for property is still growing strong, therefore end-buyers could always turn to.....banks.

No matter which way you look at it and no matter how many people are laughing their way to the banks, keep in mind the big boys will be the ones having the last laugh.


Yeo Sue En

Labels: , , , , , ,


Wednesday, July 11, 2007  

Open Note to SIA: Sell the Virgin Stake

SIA's looking to sell it, Sir Branson wants it back: the 49% stake that Singapore Airlines has in Virgin Atlantic - that has long been a dog in SIA's earnings reports - may finally get a one way ticket back to the U.K.

I say sell it. give Sir Richard Branson back what he seems to want back. His exact words on the subject: "We will be happy to have a look at their stake should Singapore want to sell it." That to me is business lingo for 'I really want it!' Anytime an executive utters words like that means that they will seriously consider an offer if it is put before them, and, the stars are aligned enough in this case where I think you would see Virgin buy back the stake.

For Singapore Airlines, it is a good move i think because Virgin Atlantic has long been the laggard on the earnings announcements for SIA as of lately, and SIA would make a substantial 'one-off' gain from the sale (most likely more than what they originally purchased the stake for).

SIA's keen interest in China Eastern may signal a shift that they are looking for stakes in airlines in growing markets (such as China), rather than more established markets such as transatlantic flights from Europe to the U.S. where the bulk of Virgin's destinations lie. The stake in Virgin did open up a lot of doors for SIA back when it happened. SIA gained access to key routes from London to east coast destinations in the U.S. that Virgin flew too.

But now, with the recent loosening of the regulation between the U.S. and Europe, competition will increase on routes, tightening margins for airlines. Risky, if you ask me.

All in all, SIA should do it, from a business standpoint it makes sense, and from a strategic standpoint, the Virgin stake just simply isn't working the magic for them anymore like it once used to.

Curtis Bergh

Labels: , ,


Monday, July 09, 2007  

Passed through quality checks? --- not enough!!

Microsoft has recently recorded a pretax charge of $1.15 bln to extend its warranty coverage for its Xbox 360 gaming console from 1-yr to 3-yrs, after receiving 'unexpected' calls for repairs.

Today, Contel Corporation announced that it has won a multi-million dollar deal from Harmonix Systems to develop and produce 'Rock Band' game controller, modelled with a Fender Stratocaster electric guitar. This programme will then be made compatible with Xbox 360, which is undergoing a lot of repair works, and even Playstation3 for Holiday 2007.

Products like these usually goes to popular gaming devices like the Xbox 360. To have faulty components may cause the product to be unpopular.

The Xbox 360 was launched in November 2005, by which 11.6 mln consoles were being shipped around the world. According to The Wall Street Journal on 9 July 2007, Monday, 5.6 mln of the Xbox were sold by U.S retailers alone.

In the article, it also added that in previous three fiscal years, Microsoft saw operating losses, especially coming from the Xbox 360 division. It was reported by a user that “too much heat being generated by components”. Microsoft says it will be reducing its earnings per charge for the quarter by 7 to 8 cts.

These days, products, especially gadgets, gets smaller by the day. The smaller the components, the chances for it to overheat tend to be higher. So by having a normal quality check (QC) is not enough anymore!

My reasons:

First, it is inconvenient for both the supplier and consumer. If it is faulty, the user has to send it for checks or repairation. The supplier will have to cover costs as mentioned in the warranty. If it's just a handful of people coming back for checks is normal--- technology is bound to have some fault in them. But if those number gets out of hand, in the case of Microsoft's Xbox 360, then something has yet to be said about its components.

Second, it could well be dangerous! Overheating, may lead to fire and the age demographics for Xbox 360 stretches across to the younger generation, who may not necessarily know what to do in cases of emergency. Take for example the Osim's uZap MINI recall because it was a potential fire hazard. At the end of the day, safety comes first.

Recall or repair works under warranty means more money had to be spent to cover these expenses.

In money sense, all these things could have been prevented if there had been more thorough or extensive checks for the products. Products like the uZap MINI and Xbox 360 has been known to overheat, and so possibly is the case for other gadgets as well. To avoid all these, as the saying goes, 'prepare your umbrella before it starts raining'; in other words, why not invest in a bit more doing extensive checks like overheating and all, pay a bit extra now, to save the potential bigger spending afterwards doing repairs and recalls. This would not look good on the product profile.

What do you think?

Nurwidya Abdul

Labels: , , , , , , ,


Friday, July 06, 2007  

China: lesser of two evils, take your pick

Did you know, that about 750,000 people a year die prematurely in China because of air and water pollution?

And according to an article written in The New York Times on 7th April this year it added that researchers estimated that pollution would cost China as much as 5.8% if its gross domestic product.

5.8%, hmm doesn't seem like a substantial amount....does it...

WRONG!

With regards to China's GDP, 5.8% makes up to about US$160...bln...a year.

Singapore's GDP for 2006 is S$210 bln....about US$138 bln.

China's booming economy has now caused major cities to be choked in a cloud of smoke.

And it is now scrambling frantically to clean up and keep it clean enough for next year's Olympics.

Here are some of the measures according to an article in The Wall Street Journal on 4th July 07:

1)Plans to ban a million cars next month for a two-week test trial to control smog
2)Banned coal-burning furnaces and relocated power plants and steel mills outside of downtown, which not to mention costs billions.
3)Pledge to keep pollution levels down

If China is seriously tackling its pollution issue it may spell trouble for the economy

1.Car ban- important mode of transport, convenient
2.Relocation of plants and mills –cost money
3.Pledge-production levels have to be adjusted, okay, reduced

This may very well be a stint just for the Olympics.

If that were so, I feel China should seriously reconsider and start taking pollution issues seriously.

But if they decide that a booming economy is worth the sacrifice then think about it.

With so much speculation as to when the country's economy may burst it can't be that far away.

And where does that leave China if and when it happens?

Do log on to investorcentral.blogspot.com to leave your comments on whether China is seeking pollution solutions just for the Olympics and your thoughts on pollution vs booming economy.


Yeo Sue En

Labels: , , , , , ,


Wednesday, July 04, 2007  

The Smoking Ban...watch your bottom lines!

Ah finally, Singapore came around to what the rest of the civilized world was doing: banning smoking indoors. Contrary to popular belief that this will hurt businesses (particularly big listed companies such as Lifebrandz and FJ Benjamin which have a stake in the nightlife scene here), this could be the greatest thing to happen to Singaporean night establishments in a long time.

Lets look at what started the trend and got the ball rolling here in Asia. Hong Kong, a city that I think is way more tobacco savvy than us here in Singapore, went smoke free on New Years, something that I found surprising, and was one of the first cities in Asia to do so.

Thailand has introduced tough anti-smoking laws which have helped people there quit smoking.

Boston, where I went to school, kicked the habit a few years back. Let me tell you first-hand, it's glooooorious to be able to breath in a bar or club without smoking and know you are not pumping cancer causing agents into your system. Now, I like the party scene in Singapore a whole lot more than Boston because it's so diverse and energetic. But on the whole, a night out in Boston was almost better simply because I came home and didn't have to shower to get the burning smell and stench of cigarettes out of my skin.

Thankfully, I'll be able to save the utility bill a bit here too thanks to the new law.

It was really New York that was the trend setter that started the whole no smoking indoors fad. It's unusual for me to heap praise on New York with all the things I don't particularly like about it (you'll have to understand Boston has a bit of a rivalry with New York, starting first with baseball), but in this case i bow down to them for starting a global trend that will only save countless lives and people from the horrors of second hand smoke. New York, I tip my hat to you.

But while die-hard smokers complain about the new law in effect here in Singapore, and club managers are worrying about a drop in volumes and revenue, I say there is absolutely nothing to worry about. In fact, this is great for business! Here's why:

Are a mass of people actually going to stop going out just because of this? Highly unlikely. While I have heard figures that some club managers are predicating a 15%-20% drop in business (maybe even 30% in some cases), did they ever think about those that simply didn't go out before because the stench of smoke in the clubs was just too much? People that stayed home on party nights before the ban could easily make up for those smokers that are so angry that they won't go out.

But beyond this from a business perspective, look at it from a health perspective: we're all going to be breathing cleaner, healthier air, and living longer. Our lungs will thank us. As a WHO conference convenes this week in Bangkok in drafting up a global action plan to get everyone to kick the habit, a story out the other day said that 1 billion people this century could die from tobacco related diseases if something isn't done. 1 BILLION!

According to Douglas Bettcher, head of the WTO's Tobacco Free Initiative, 5.4 million people a year die due to tobacco related products and illnesses, half of those in developing countries.

Initially, health concerns were the main reason for bars, restaurants, and clubs in the U.S. to go smoke free, mainly out of concern for employees of those establishments. The second hand smoke over the course of 15 years could be just as bad as a pack a day smoker for a year or two or more for someone who works five nights a week as a bartender.

Furthermore, the argument that smoking 'is a right' and those that are smokers should have the right to smoke anywhere they want is also far fetched. Smoking is a privilege, not something that you are entitled to. end of story (I won't entertain views of the opposite, but feel free to posts your comments). To smokers making the argument that smoking is a right: you don't have the right to spread toxic garbage into non-smokers lungs in public. If you're in the privacy of your own home, go right ahead. But saying you have the right to smoke in public is like saying "hey, i have the right to kill you...it may take a couple years, but let me get the ball rolling so you die sooner." Give me a break...

To everyone in Singapore, this is the best thing to happen to public health globally and it is finally coming to our town. Hooray! From the bottom of my heart, and lungs, i have nothing but praise that this is finally in effect.

And to businesses here, don't worry! This is a good thing.

Curtis Bergh

Labels: , , , , ,


Monday, July 02, 2007  

Bans on China's exports may hit SGX-listed China stocks

It never rains but it pours.

And how true that idiom is for China's current predicament.

Just weeks after news on the China slave scandal exploded past Chinese shores, China's food exports, among other things, have come under scrutiny.

It all started with some pets in the US dying after having eaten some pet food containing Chinese-made wheat flour, which was contaminated with melamine. That prompted a massive recall on American pet food.

That was the beginning of a whole slew of export investigations.

Then came the discovery of a potentially toxic chemical in Chinese toothpaste exports – diethylene glycol, a substance used in anti-freeze.

US toymaker, RC2, also recalled “Thomas the Tank Engine” toy trains made in China after finding out the paint used on some of them contained lead.

At the beginning of last week, a New Jersey tire importer recalled 450,000 Chinese-made tires after a fatal accident, and finding out that those tires did not adhere to their safety standards.

End of the week saw the US Food and Drug Administration saying it will block the imports of Chinese farm-raised seafood due to concerns of contamination.

The European Union said last Friday that it will follow the lead of the FDA on seafood.

Japan has also stepped up the seafood scrutiny after finding an increase in the number of shipments of Chinese eels that did not meet Japanese safety standards.

Now China may be new to the public relations game, but if it does not take action on these issues soon, its drive up towards the 2008 Beijing Olympics could be heading down the drain.

You should be worried since the SGX-listed Chinese stocks you hold may be implicated in these export investigations.

Stocks like China Dairy, China Milk, China Food Industries, among others, will probably on the watch list.

There are a few things China should do to start controlling the damage.

First, it really should quit playing tit for tat.

China has recently announced rejecting US-imported food like orange pulp and dried apricots because they didn't meet its safety standards. This seems too much of a coincidence, doesn't it?

Second, it should take reviews on its food exports seriously, instead of issuing papers to convince others of the good quality of its exports.

In spite of all these defensive stances, China has to be commended on the changes it has made so far.

According to Xinhua news agency, the Chinese government had last Friday approved the nomination of a 54-year-old Paris-trained scientist who is not a member of the Communist Party as the country's new health minister.

The previous head of China's food-and-drug administration has been sentenced to death for taking bribes which led to faulty medicines being sold.

The country should run well if it focuses on reforming itself internally instead of pointing fingers at external sources.

Otherwise, good luck for next year's Beijing Olympics.

Serene Lim

Labels: , , , ,


Archives
January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 January 2009

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?