Friday, August 24, 2007  

Economy; where is it going?

Singapore has and is currently experiencing a boom in more than one of the current industries.

There's the oil and gas sector, the construction sector and of course the highly rated property sector.

Its all fun and games when there's money to be made and opportunities galore.

The current positive business sentiment has been going strong for.....hmmm slightly more than a year....

Sure! There were talks about the property bubble bursting and the oil and gas sector tapering down.

But up till now, it seems to be mostly talk and speculations.

Up till now....

According to the latest BT-UniSIM Business Climate Survey in the Business Times article today by Oh Boon Ping, the survey yielded that business profts sentiments have weakened slightly in the second quarter of 2007.

The survey is now in its twelfth year, and polls 125 local and foreign firms form a range of industries, with regards to their earnings numbers such as sales, profits, new orders and business prospects.

Here are some of the results:

The percentage of firms which reported more than 10% increase in its profits have dropped from 38% in Q1 2007 to 29% in Q2 2007.

And slightly more companies are expecting things to turn for the worse for the remaining year.

Before you become a worry pot, Chow Kit Boey the survey director says that the numbers 'are still positive and healthy' but it could also indicate that the Singapore Economy 'is close to the peak of the business cycle and an economic slowdown looks imminent'.

However in her statment, she added that she is confident the slowdown would blow over by next year.

Conclusion of the survey?

That the numbers indicate that the economy is still growing but at slower rates, and that the current expansion phase is taking longer than the average past cycles.

Well, that's not for certain that the economy would stay up, but its a worthwhile thought.

But considering that anything that goes but must come down. Even though studies show that the economy is not likely to spiral downwards anytime soon, we can't escape the fact that the day is drawing near!

Currently, manufacturing was the best performer in sales and the contruction sector has held the best business prospects for six quarters straight.

If you're asking me, that day is certainly closer than we all expect.

But considering that we are in the midst of a construction boom, we still have that time until all the construction projects in Singapore have been completed.

We would love to hear your views on whether the Singapore market is indeed heading south pretty soon, or if you agree with the survey that its just a minor slowdown that will only last till next year.

Nurwidya Abdul

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