Indiana Jones crawled through catacombs in Venice in The Last Crusade when he suddenly shouted: "Rats!" The ambiguity of the scene, as a frequently-used figurative exclamation as well as a literal description of the teeming vermin before him, takes on extra significance in the lunar Year of the Rat. At this stage, we think it's more likely to be the year of "Rats!" than a joyous hallowing of the humble rodent.

We'll be shouting "Rats!" when the statistics show the US economy is in recession. And contrary to the assertions of the great Crusader himself, George W. Bush, the indications according to a BBC report earlier this morning seem to be that the 'R' word - that is, recession (not rat) - will be used frequently this year.

We'll be shouting "Rats!" when the US$168 bln aid package passed by Congress fails to kickstart the spluttering economy. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson probably wished he had his old job as Chairman of Goldman Sachs back when he told a congressional committee that recession might be averted if the Democrats kindly approved the package. Which they did. Chicken feed, given the billions the Americans have wasted on finding the phantom weapons of mass destructions.

We'll also be shouting "Rats!" when rising prices become a big problem and, combined with a declining economy, brings about the unhappy confluence of inflation and stagnation (stagflation).

Go to the Singapore Zoo or Jurong Bird Park to see white rats running along string hung up above visitors' heads. Some threaten to fall off as they scurry along. Whether they'll fall on the side of recession or growth only the Year of the Rat will tell.


Mark Laudi, who has developed an unusual fondness for rats after watching Ratatouille

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Labels: Henry Paulson, Indiana Jones, Last Crusade, Rats, recession, year of the rat